A Second Korean War

As if World War 2 weren't enough, the early 1950's saw the outbreak of hostilities on the Korean penninsula. The communist north invaded the south in hopes of unifying the country under one government. The United States and newly created United Nations responded and the Korean war got underway. After years of fighting with many casualties on both sides, an armistice was signed at the 38th parallel, almost exactly where the war started!

Recently, North Korea has been continuing to advance its nuclear weapons program. It detonated a small nuclear weapon and test fired short and long range ballistic missiles. The international community responded with anger and threats of sanctions, the North Koreans responded with threats of military force.

The North Koreans sight South Korean pledges to join Obama's initiative to search sea vessels suspected of carrying nuclear contraband as an informal declaration of war. The unstable North Korean government issued a warning that any attempt to stop ships bound for communist nation would be met by military force. South Korean and American troops are currently on high alert in response to the diplomatic threats.

A shooting war, should it develop, would likely be similar to deadly skirmishes thay ere fought between North and South as recently as 2003. If any fighting occurs, that should be the worst of it. But what if it's not. North Korea has a large standing conventional military and an invasion would cost many lives on both sides. There are currently 25,000 American troops stationed in South Korea, more than president Obama is sending to Afghanistan as part of the surge. There are an additional 50,000 AMerican troops in Japan. In the event of an invasion, civilian casualties would likely be very heavy. Ultimately, the North would be outgunned and would lose the war, amidst tragic loss of life. Kim Jong might be tempted to use whatever operational nuclear weapons his country has in order to stave off military defeat and political coup. North Korea knows they are outgunned, so what is with all the saber waving?

North Korea can't claim that nuclear weapons will make their country more secure becasue they are doing the exact opposite. This is the closest that we have come to another Korean war since the 1953 armistice. The only logical explanation is domestic politics. The communist party in North Korea needs something positive. The poverty in North Korea is simply unbelievable. The government is not capable of feeding its own citizens. They rely on aid from the UN and other charitable sources so that they don't stare to death. The real victims here are the civilians, who are trapped under an oppressive regime that doesn't really care whether any of them live or die. Rumor has it that Kim Jong is grooming his son to be his successor as head of the communist party. The only thing preventing an uprising of the general populace is fear of violent reprisals and a twisted since of national unity against American oppression that is spoon fed to the masses via the government-run media.

The ultimate goal of American foreign policy should be the protection of lives, of our soldiers, allies and the North Korean civilians. North Korea poses no signifigant military threat to America and the outbreak of a general war is unlikely as it would be comparable to them committing suicide. Diplomacy and patience are still the way to go, but harsher sanctions might be needed. If North Korea gives weapons technology and knowledge to terrorists then there is no telling what could happen. So far Obama is doing and saying all the right things to prevent this problem from turning into a disaster. Only time will tell just how crazy North Korea really is.